International trips by Canadian residents

International trips by Canadian residents will reach a projected 42.9 million in 2026, capping an extraordinary post-pandemic rebound with an estimated 40.3% compound annual increase from 2021 to 2026. Pent-up leisure demand, rising disposable incomes and improved aircraft efficiency have powered this surge, even as a weaker Canadian dollar and lingering recession fears in 2024 have made overseas travel more expensive and forced some households to scale back plans. Travel volumes have stabilized below the immediate post-reopening peaks, but an anticipated soft landing, resilient consumer appetite and restored airline capacity keep outbound trips elevated, while emerging US-Canada trade frictions are beginning to weigh on expectations for cross-border travel.

From 2021 to 2026, outbound travel has swung from historic lows to near-record highs. Lingering public-health restrictions and border controls in 2021 sent international trips tumbling by 45.9%, before the removal of most barriers by 2022 unleashed a rapid recovery as Canadians rushed to resume cross-border and long-haul travel. Open borders in the United States and other key destinations, combined with households prioritizing travel after two years of constraints, drove a 304.0% rebound, re-anchoring volumes near pre-pandemic norms.

Gains in 2023 and 2024 were tempered by inflation, higher airfares and recession anxiety, while currency volatility and episodes of US-Canada trade tension in 2025 began to redirect or defer some trips, particularly to traditional US sun and shopping destinations. At the same time, widespread adoption of digital communication tools and remote work has structurally reduced the need for some business travel, shifting the mix toward leisure and family visits and leaving total trip counts more sensitive to consumer confidence, exchange rates and geopolitical shocks.