Value of merchandise trade exports in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1980-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts that the value of merchandise trade exports will rise by 2.4% in 2026-27 to reach $82.61 billion. In the first month of 2026-27, the total value of exports traded increased by $0.94 billion compared to the same period in 2025-26, an increase of 12.2%. This growth has been driven by meat, dairy products, gold and crude oil. According to Statistics New Zealand, these commodity groups contributed to around 74% of the total export value increase in April 2026, highlighting their significance. Meat exports were supported by robust demand for New Zealand beef from the United States, where low herd numbers have lifted demand for imported meat. The New Zealand-European Union Free Trade Agreement (NZ-EU FTA) will also continue to support New Zealand exports. The European Union was the largest buyer for New Zealand sheep meat in April 2026, purchasing $173 million worth, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. These trends and factors will support export growth in 2026-27. Still, the prices of commodities like gold are expected to ease, with gold prices slumping to their 6-month low in June 2026 as inflationary pressures raised the probability of rate hikes. This trend will likely offset further increases in exports this year.New Zealand's value of merchandise exports has followed a consistent long-run growth trajectory dating back to the 1980s. A large percentage of this growth has been driven by the country's dairy industry, which has a strong competitive advantage from its optimal climate and the presence of large companies with significant economies of scale. According to data from Statistics New Zealand, dairy export revenue eclipsed $23.8 billion, while meat product export revenue totalled $11.0 billion in 2025-26, accounting for around 31.0% and 14.4% of all export revenue, respectively. Over the five years through 2025-26, prices have been a key contributor to New Zealand's export growth, with the price index for all goods rising by an annualised 5.9%. Dairy products recorded an annualised price growth of 8.0% while meat products climbed 8.4%. Butter, beef and veal prices surged the most, rising at an annualised 13.8% and 8.4% respectively over the five-year period. Many Asian middle-class markets have expanded significantly over the past five years, particularly in China. New Zealand dairy and meat products tend to be viewed as premium alternatives in these markets, which has driven overseas demand for domestically produced raw and processed products. In particular, milk powder exports have grown substantially. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which came into force in January 2022, and the removal of dairy product tariffs in the New Zealand-China FTA in January 2024 have also supported growth in exports to the greater Asia-Pacific region.While long-term growth in exports has supported the New Zealand economy, 2023-24 was a rare year when the annual value of exports declined by 4.4%. While the entry into force of the New Zealand-United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement (NZ-UK FTA) in May 2023 boosted overall trade volumes, sharp declines in dairy and meat prices that had supported record export revenue in previous years led to a decline in total export value. However, the dairy export price index rebounded by 12.5% in 2024-25 and 7.9% in 2025-26, according to Statistics New Zealand, helping offset the poor performance of New Zealand's exports in 2023-24. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade exports to increase at a compound annual rate of 4.7% over the five years through 2026-27.