Domestic price of fruit in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (2000-2033)

IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of fruit to increase by 3.4% in 2025-26, reaching 128.3 index points. Fruit and vegetable consumption is expected to rebound in 2025–26 as easing cost-of-living pressures and improved household sentiment lift grocery demand. This recovery is likely to support higher retail prices, as supermarkets respond to increased willingness to pay, particularly for premium and organic fruit varieties. Lingering soil health issues and heightened tree death stemming from the lasting impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle are also expected to weigh on yields in 2025-26. Constraints on supply will also place upwards pressure on fruit prices throughout the year.In February 2023, Cyclone Gabrielle devastated key pip fruit regions in Hawke's Bay, destroying over 610 hectares of apple orchards and causing estimated losses of $1.4 billion. This caused fruit prices to skyrocket in 2022-23 and 2023-24, marking the highest period of volatility since the late 2000s . The impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle were exacerbated by sharp spikes in fertiliser prices, as the agricultural sector was debilitated by supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war.While farmers experienced record-high national rainfall in 2022-23 , conditions have since regressed to the norm across much of the country. This rainfall volatility has contributed to price increases over the past five years. Flood-damaged crops and drought-stressed orchards have tightened supply, pushing domestic fruit prices higher. The Recognised Seasonal Employer scheme has helped farmers maintain labour availability. However, many growers reported higher labour costs in 2023-24, pushing up output prices. Farmers continued to grapple with input costs throughout 2024-25. Despite a decline in the domestic price of fertiliser in 2024–25, imported fertilisers and agricultural chemicals remained relatively expensive due to a weak New Zealand dollar against key trade partners, such as Australia, China and Saudi Arabia. While these input costs did not directly drive fruit price growth, they limited growers' ability to pass on cost savings to consumers, keeping fruit prices elevated despite easing in some farm-level expenses. Despite the challenges faced by farmers, export demand for New Zealand fruit has remained strong, particularly from Asian markets where incomes are rising and demand for premium fresh produce continues to grow. Over the five years through 2025-26, the domestic price of fruit is anticipated to increase at a compound annual rate of 5.8%.