Freight of metallic ores and concentrates

Freight activity for metallic ores and concentrates in Canada is set to increase by 0.8% in 2026, reaching 62.4 million metric tons. Demand from China's construction and industrial sectors remains subdued, limiting the need for iron and other ores shipped from Canada. The imposition of US tariffs on Canadian metals, including a 25% levy on iron and steel exports, has constrained cross-border shipment volumes and narrowed the market's recovery window. Modest support from domestic Canadian construction activity is providing some offset, though it is insufficient to drive broad expansion given the decline of key US export activity.

Freight activity for metallic ores and concentrates experienced contraction, a brief recovery and prolonged stagnation over the five years through 2026. Lingering pandemic disruptions in 2021 caused a sharp drop in volumes as global demand collapsed and supply chains fractured. After restrictions eased, the sector rebounded in 2022 with freight activity rising 6.1%, driven by revived mining labor and pent-up demand from construction and manufacturing sectors both domestically and internationally.

That recovery proved short-lived. By 2023, weakening industrial output in China and tightening trade policy had already begun reversing gains. New trade barriers, policy uncertainty and the emergence of US tariffs on Canadian nickel and other metals forced carriers and exporters to seek alternative markets, adding cost and complexity to their operations. Shifts in construction and manufacturing technology toward modular and lightweight designs also reduced reliance on traditional metallic ores over the period, placing further structural pressure on freight demand.

Throughout the five-year period, non-metallic minerals outperformed metals due to their relative abundance, simpler extraction and insulation from geopolitical trade tensions. Rising operating costs, recurring labor shortages and commodity price volatility compounded difficulties for metallic ore freight carriers, requiring greater investment in supply chain efficiency and adaptability. Growing emphasis on sustainability and decarbonization in extraction and construction further reshaped material flows and freight demand. Overall, the freight of metallic ores and concentrates in Canada is set to have grown at a compound annual rate of 1.2% over the five years through 2026.