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Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia - Market Research Report (2013-2028)

Disha Kartik Jeswanth Disha Kartik Jeswanth Melbourne, Australia Last Updated: October 2023 ANZSIC G4129

Revenue

$972.7m

2023-24

$972.7m

Past 5-Year Growth

Profit

$XX.Xm

Employees

6,581

Businesses

2,009

Wages

$XXX.Xm

Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia industry analysis

Bread and Cake Retailers have faced a challenging trading environment in recent years. Fierce competition among industry retailers and from external sources like supermarkets has weighed on industry growth. Increasing competition has led to store closures for Retail Food Group (RFG), the industry's largest player. Unlike many related retailing industries, the largest bread and cake retailers have not performed as strongly as their smaller counterparts. For example, RFG has closed many Donut King stores because of unsatisfactory lease agreements with shop landlords and declining shopping centre performance during the pandemic.Consumer sentiment and disposable income movements have also fuelled industry performance by altering consumer spending patterns. In particular, growth in disposable incomes and rising health concerns have driven consumer demand for higher-value baked goods like organic bread products, boosting profit margins. Overall, industry revenue has risen at an annualised 0.8% over the past five years and is expected to total $972.7 million in 2023-24, when revenue will edge upward by 0.7%. The industry has also benefitted from COVID-19 restrictions easing, as foot traffic picked up as more workers returned to the office. However, the COVID-19 pandemic drove more at-home meals, reducing industry demand as many households purchased bread, cake and pastries from supermarkets instead of bread and cake retailers, constraining industry growth.The industry is set to grow modestly going forward. A rising disposable income will improve the industry's performance by boosting demand for higher-value products like organic and gluten-free bread and cakes. However, ongoing competition from on-premises bakeries, supermarkets, cafes and coffee shops will limit the pace of industry expansion. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to increase at an annualised 1.3% over the five years through 2028-29 to total $1.0 billion.

Trends and Insights

  • Volatile consumer sentiment has weighed on industry demand, especially for more discretionary items like cakes and pastries. Demand for bread is shadowed from this effect because of its staple nature.
  • Bread is the largest product segment in the industry. Bread’s contribution to industry revenue has shrunk because of its increasing availability in supermarkets offering it at lower prices.
  • Industry businesses are typically located in shopping centres and mall strips. This trend can be attributed to the high passing foot traffic in these areas.
  • Industry retailers compete among themselves based on several factors besides price. Retailers with a broader product range and those in suitable locations also have significant competitive advantages.

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Industry Statistics and Trends

Market size and recent performance (2013-2028)

Industry revenue has grown at a CAGR of 0.8 % over the past five years, to reach an estimated $972.7m in 2023.

Trends and Insights

Weak consumer sentiment has weighed on industry revenue growth

  • Consumer sentiment tends to influence spending on cakes and pastries more than bread, as bread is a staple of many Australian diets.
  • Additional trends and insights available with purchase
Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia
Revenue (2013-2028)
IBISWorld Logo Source: IBISWorld

Industry outlook (2024-2029)

Market size is projected to grow over the next five years.

Trends and Insights

Improving consumer sentiment will support industry performance

  • Most baked goods are considered discretionary purchases and can be substituted with cheaper products.

Biggest companies in the Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia

Company
Market Share (%)
2024
Revenue ($m)
2024
Retail Food
81.1
Foodco Group Pty Ltd
38.9
Krispy Kreme Australia Pty Limited
38.9

To view the market share and analysis for all 4 top companies in this industry, view purchase options.

Products & Services Segmentation

Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia
Products & Services
IBISWorld Logo Source: IBISWorld

Industry revenue is measured across several distinct product and services lines, including Bread, Cakes and Pastries and other bakery products. Bread is the largest segment of the Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia.

Trends and Insights

Substantial external competition has diminished bread's contribution to industry revenue

  • The bread segment includes traditional bread loaves, rolls and savoury buns.
  • More insights available in the full report

Table of Contents

About this industry

Industry definition

Industry retailers sell a range of baked goods including bread, cakes, pastries and biscuits. Industry players can operate independently or as part of a franchise network. Products are made off-premises, purchased from wholesalers or that franchise parent companies supply.

What's included in this industry?

BiscuitsBreadCakesPastriesMuffinsMixes

Companies

Retail FoodFoodco Group Pty LtdKrispy Kreme Australia Pty Limited

Purchase this report to view all 4 major companies in this industry.

Related Terms

ARTISAN BREAD PASTRIESGLUTEN-FREE

Industry Code

ANZSIC 2006

ANZSIC 4129 - Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia

Performance

Get an indication of the industry's health through historical, current and forward-looking trends in the performance indicators that make or break businesses.

Analyst insights

Volatile consumer sentiment has weighed on industry demand, especially for more discretionary items like cakes and pastries. Demand for bread is shadowed from this effect bec...

In this chapter (4)

  • Current Performance
  • Outlook
  • Volatility
  • Life Cycle

Key metrics

  • Annual Revenue, Recent Growth, Forecast, Revenue Volatility
  • Number of Employees, Recent Growth, Forecast, Employees per Business, Revenue per Employee
  • Number of Businesses, Recent Growth, Forecast, Employees per Business, Revenue per Business
  • Total Profit, Profit Margin, Profit per Business

Charts

  • Revenue, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Employees, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Businesses, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Profit, including historical (2013-2023)
  • Industry Volatility vs. Revenue Growth
  • Industry Life Cycle

Detailed analysis

  • Trends in supply, demand and current events that are driving current industry performance
  • Expected trends, economic factors and ongoing events that drive the industry's outlook
  • Key success factors for businesses to overcome volatility
  • How contribution to GDP, industry saturation, innovation, consolidation, and technology and systems influence the industry's life cycle phase.

Products and Markets

Learn about an industry's products and services, markets and trends in international trade.

Analyst insight

Bread is the largest product segment in the industry. Bread’s contribution to industry revenue has shrunk because of its increasing availability in supermarkets offering it a...

In this chapter

  • Products & Services
  • Major Markets

Key metrics

  • Largest market segment and value in 2023
  • Product innovation level

Charts

  • Products & services segmentation in 2023
  • Major market segmentation in 2023

Detailed analysis

  • Trends impacting the recent performance of the industry's various segments
  • Innovations in the industry's product or service offering, specialization or delivery method
  • Key factors that successful businesses consider in their offerings
  • Buying segments and key trends influencing demand for industry products and services

Geographic Breakdown

Discover where business activity is most concentrated in an industry and the factors driving these trends to find opportunities and conduct regional benchmarking.

Analyst insights

Industry businesses are typically located in shopping centres and mall strips. This trend can be attributed to the high passing foot traffic in these areas.

In this chapter (1)

  • Business Locations

Charts

  • Share of revenue, establishment, wages and employment in each region
  • Share of population compared to establishments in each region in 2023

Tables

  • Number and share of establishments in each region in 2023
  • Number and share of revenue each region accounts for in 2023
  • Number and share of wages each region accounts for in 2023
  • Number and share of employees in each region in 2023

Detailed analysis

  • Geographic spread of the industry across Asia Pacific, and trends associated with changes in the business landscape
  • Key success factors for businesses to use location to their advantage

Competitive Forces

Get data and insights on what's driving competition in an industry and the challenges industry operators and new entrants may face, with analysis built around Porter's Five Forces framework.

Analyst insights

Industry retailers compete among themselves based on several factors besides price. Retailers with a broader product range and those in suitable locations also have significa...

In this chapter (4)

  • Concentration
  • Barriers to Entry
  • Substitutes
  • Buyer & Supplier Analysis

Key metrics

  • Industry concentration level
  • Industry competition level and trend
  • Barriers to entry level and trend
  • Substitutes level and trend
  • Buyer power level and trend
  • Supplier power level and trend

Charts

  • Market share concentration among the top 4 suppliers from 2018-2023
  • Supply chain including upstream supplying industries and downstream buying industries, flow chart

Detailed analysis

  • Factors impacting the industry’s level of concentration, such as business distribution, new entrants, or merger and acquisition activity.
  • Key success factors for businesses to manage the competitive environment of the industry.
  • Challenges that potential industry entrants face such as legal, start-up costs, differentiation, labor/capital intensity and capital expenses.
  • Key success factors for potential entrants to overcome barriers to entry.
  • Competitive threats from potential substitutes for the industry’s own products and services.
  • Key success factors for how successful businesses can compete with substitutes.
  • Advantages that buyers have to keep favorable purchasing conditions.
  • Advantages that suppliers have to maintain favorable selling conditions.
  • Key success factors for how businesses can navigate buyer and supplier power.

Companies

Learn about the performance of the top companies in the industry.

Analyst insights

The industry’s largest player, Retail Food Group, operates in the industry through Donut King. The company’s performance has been adversely affected because of substantial st...

In this chapter

  • Market Share Concentration
  • Companies
  • Company Spotlights

Charts

  • Industry market share by company in 2019 through 2023
  • Major companies in the industry, including market share, revenue, profit and profit margin in 2023
  • Overview of Retail Food's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2017 through 2023
  • Overview of Foodco Group Pty Ltd's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2017 through 2023
  • Overview of Krispy Kreme Australia Pty Limited's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2017 through 2023
  • Overview of revenue, market share and profit margin trend for one additional company

Detailed analysis

  • Description and key data for Retail Food, and factors influencing its performance in the industry
  • Description and key data for Foodco Group Pty Ltd, and factors influencing its performance in the industry
  • Description and key data for Krispy Kreme Australia Pty Limited, and factors influencing its performance in the industry
  • Description, key data and performance trends for one additional company

External Environment

Understand the demographic, economic and regulatory factors that shape how businesses in an industry perform.   

Analyst insights

Industry regulations are mainly related to food safety standards. Food Standards Australia New Zealand is an organisation that ensures the food supply is safe and hygienic fo...

In this chapter

  • External Drivers
  • Regulation & Policy
  • Assistance

Key metrics

  • Regulation & policy level and trend
  • Assistance level and trend

Charts

  • Regulation & Policy historical data and forecast (2013-2028) 
  • Assistance historical data and forecast (2013-2028) 

Detailed analysis

  • Demographic and macroeconomic factors influencing the industry, including Regulation & Policy and Assistance
  • Major types of regulations, regulatory bodies, industry standards or specific regulations impacting requirements for industry operators
  • Key governmental and non-governmental groups or policies that may provide some relief for industry operators.

Financial Benchmarks

View average costs for industry operators and compare financial data against an industry's financial benchmarks over time. 

Analyst insights

Industry profit margins have recovered over the past few years. This trend can be attributed to increasing demand for high-value products that command greater margins.

In this chapter

  • Cost Structure
  • Financial Ratios
  • Key Ratios

Key metrics

  • Profit margin, and how it compares to the sector-wide margin
  • Average wages, and how it compares to the sector-wide average wage
  • Largest cost component as a percentage of revenue
  • Industry average ratios for days' receivables, industry coverage and debt-to-net-worth ratio

Charts

  • Average industry operating costs as a share of revenue, including purchases, wages, depreciation, utilities, rent, other costs and profit in 2023
  • Average sector operating costs as a share of revenue, including purchases, wages, depreciation, utilities, rent, other costs and profit in 2023
  • Investment vs. share of economy

Data tables

  • Cash Flow & Debt Service Ratios (2013-2028)
  • Revenue per Employee (2013-2028)
  • Revenue per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • Employees per Establishment (2013-2028)
  • Employees per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • Average Wage (2013-2028)
  • Wages/Revenue (2013-2028)
  • Establishments per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • IVA/Revenue (2013-2028)
  • Imports/Demand (2013-2028)
  • Exports/Revenue (2013-2028)

Detailed analysis

  • Trends in the cost component for industry operators and their impact on industry costs and profitability 

Key Statistics

Industry Data

Data Tables

Including values and annual change:

  • Revenue (2013-2028)
  • IVA (2013-2028)
  • Establishments (2013-2028)
  • Enterprises (2013-2028)
  • Employment (2013-2028)
  • Exports (2013-2028)
  • Imports (2013-2028)
  • Wages (2013-2028)

Top Questions Answered

Unlock comprehensive answers and precise data upon purchase. View purchase options.

What is the market size of the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia in 2024?

The market size of the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia is $972.7m in 2024.

How many businesses are there in the Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia industry in 2023?

There are 2,009 businesses in the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia, which has grown at a CAGR of 2.5 % between 2018 and 2023.

Has the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia grown or declined over the past 5 years?

The market size of the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia has been growing at a CAGR of 0.8 % between 2018 and 2023.

What is the forecast growth of the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia over the next 5 years?

Over the next five years, the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia is expected to grow.

What are the biggest companies in the Bread and Cake Retailing market in Australia?

The biggest companies operating in the Bread and Cake Retailing market in Australia are Retail Food, Foodco Group Pty Ltd and Krispy Kreme Australia Pty Limited

What does the Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia include?

Biscuits and Bread are part of the Bread and Cake Retailing industry.

Which companies have the highest market share in the Bread and Cake Retailing in Australia?

The company holding the most market share in Australia is Retail Food.

How competitive is the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia?

The level of competition is moderate and increasing in the Bread and Cake Retailing industry in Australia.

Related Industries

Widen your competitive advantage with related industries

View all industries in Australia

Methodology

How are IBISWorld reports created?

IBISWorld has been a leading provider of trusted industry research for over 50 years to the most successful companies worldwide. With offices in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and China, we are proud to have local teams of analysts that conduct research, data analysis and forecasting to produce data-driven industry reports.

Our analysts start with official, verified and publicly available sources of data to build the most accurate picture of each industry. Analysts then leverage their expertise and knowledge of the local markets to synthesize trends into digestible content for IBISWorld readers. Finally, each report is reviewed by one of IBISWorld’s editors, who provide quality assurance to ensure accuracy and readability.

IBISWorld relies on human-verified data and human-written analysis to compile each standard industry report. We do not use generative AI tools to write insights, although members can choose to leverage AI-based tools within the platform to generate additional analysis formats.

What data sources do IBISWorld analysts use?

Each industry report incorporates data and research from government databases, industry-specific sources, industry contacts, and our own proprietary database of statistics and analysis to provide balanced, independent and accurate insights.

Key data sources in Australia include:

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics
  • Australian Taxation Office
  • Australian Securities & Investments Commission

Analysts also use industry specific sources to complement catch-all sources, although their perspective may focus on a particular organization or representative body, rather than a clear overview of all industry operations. However, when balanced against other perspectives, industry-specific sources provide insights into industry trends.

These sources include:

  • Industry and trade associations
  • Industry federations or regulators
  • Major industry players annual or quarterly filings

Finally, IBISWorld’s global data scientists maintain a proprietary database of macroeconomic and demand drivers, which our analysts use to help inform industry data and trends. They also maintain a database of statistics and analysis on thousands of industries, which has been built over our more than 50-year history and offers comprehensive insights into long-term trends.

How does IBISWorld forecast its data?

IBISWorld’s analysts and data scientists use the sources above to create forecasts for our proprietary datasets and industry statistics. Depending on the dataset, they may use regression analysis, multivariate analysis, time-series analysis or exponential smoothing techniques to project future data for the industry or driver. Additionally, analysts will leverage their local knowledge of industry operating and regulatory conditions to impart their best judgment on the forecast model.

IBISWorld prides itself on being a trusted, independent source of data, with over 50 years of experience building and maintaining rich datasets and forecasting tools. We are proud to be the keystone source of industry information for thousands of companies across the world.

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